According to the US Census Bureau's estimates released yesterday, Harris County grew last year by just under 50,000, about half of what it grew in 2024. International immigration, which has fueled the County’s growth for most of the last decade, fell from 101,000 to 57,000. Nonetheless, it still accounted for all of the County’s growth. Without international immigration, the County population would have declined by about 10,000.

It should be noted that Harris County is overwhelmingly the preferred destination for international migration within Texas. Last year, while Harris County accounted for only 16% of the state’s population, 34% of international immigrants settled here.

The number of people moving out of the County destined to somewhere else in the US (domestic migration) grew from 31,000 to 43,000. The County has not had positive domestic immigration since 2015. In the last ten years, about 300,000 have left the County for other places in the US.

The number of births and deaths in Harris County held steady at about 67,000 and 31,000, respectively, resulting in natural growth of 35,000. Because of the relatively young median age in Harris County, it will likely sustain a small natural increase for some time. However, this will inevitably slowly fall as the County ages.

It is important to understand that the Census Bureau’s estimates are as of July 1 each year. So, the estimate released yesterday was as of July 1, 2025. This means that the range covered by this estimate would have about seven months of the Biden administration and about five months of the Trump administration. Therefore, it is likely that most of the international immigration into Harris County occurred earlier in the year and has slowed significantly since then.

It is noteworthy, however, that this estimate does not indicate a mass exodus of immigrants, as DHS claims. At Baker, we have been looking at other data that might indicate a significant outflow of immigrants, and so far, we are not finding much. For example, we have been tracking the ridership on Metro’s Gulfton circulator route. Gulfton is essentially Houston’s Ellis Island, with many immigrants making their home in that area when they first arrive.  Metro operates two bus lines that circle the area. It is used by many immigrants for routine trips and to connect to other lines to large employment centers. Ridership on those lines steadily increased in the last two years of the Biden administration, but has shown some deterioration since Trump was elected.

Taken together, the Census data and the local data we have been tracking appear to indicate a significant decline in international immigration – probably close to zero, but not that there has been a mass exodus of immigrants from the County.

The bottom line is that Harris County has effectively become dependent on international immigration for population growth. Without it, stagnation or decline is the baseline. Therefore, future federal immigration policy will probably have no more impact on Harris County than any other place in the state, and possibly the entire country.

Author’s note: The numbers for the Houston region show better population growth. More on that next time.

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