I regularly see on social media and some pundits on the mainstream media make fantastic claims about the number of immigrates coming to our country. While there is no doubt that the cartels have devised a scheme to manipulate our asylum laws resulting in a surge in immigrants over the last two years, in the longer term, the effect of immigration has been remarkably stable.

The Center of Immigration Studies (“CIS”, a policy group that favors lower immigration, compiled the following table from data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It shows that immigration has increased the U.S. population by about one million people per year for the last two decades with the exception for the last two years of the Trump administration and the first year of the Biden administration when Trump’s more restrictive policies and the pandemic cut immigration by about half.

‍

There are several things to note about this table.

First, the data is based on the U.S. Census annual estimates. These estimates are made as of July 1 of each year and generally released in the spring of the following year. So, the latest data we have from U.S. Census is as of July 1, 2022.

This chart prepared by US Facts based on Homeland Security shows that much of the surge at the southern border started shortly after Biden took office. As result it is likely we will a significantly higher numbers when the 2023 and 2024 estimates are released as the cumulative effect of higher numbers kick in.

Also notice that the term used is “Net International Immigration.”  I emphasize the word “Net” because not everyone that comes to America from another country stays. There is some natural out migration. Visas expire. Students finish college and go home. Some just get homesick for their country and families and return.  Also, the U.S. expels several hundred thousand people every year (shown in the dark blue part of the bars above). So, when you see the numbers about the number of immigrants coming into the country, legally or illegally, do not assume that all of them are staying here permanently.

The other very significant trend to note in the table is how rapidly the “Natural Increase” is declining. This is the difference between the number of births and deaths of people already living in the country. That number has plummeted 87% in just the last fifteen years, falling from 1.88 million to just 245,000. This is largely driven by the fact that fertility rate in the U.S. (number of births per woman) has fallen to 1.64 which far below the 2.1 rate necessary to maintain a level population.

However, the decrease was supercharged by the increase in fatalities in the U.S. since 2020 (~500,000 per year), largely due to the pandemic. Presumably, the fatalities will return to pre-pandemic levels over the next few years and the natural increase will rebound to some degree. But the trend is clear. The bulk of any increase in the population of the U.S. in the future will largely be driven by immigration.

I also frequently see a narrative that America is being “overrun” by immigrants. According to US Census data a little under 14% of those currently living in the country were born somewhere else. This is the highest level since the early part of the 20^th Century and almost three times the percentage in 1970.  However, most of the increase took place between 1970 and 2011, when the percentage hit 13% for the time in almost a century. In the last ten years, the percentage has increased at a relatively slow pace.

However, when you look at the absolute numbers as opposed to the percentages, the current situation is more alarming. Since 1970 the number of foreign-born U.S. residents has more quadrupled from just 10 million to over 45 million. According to U.S. Census numbers just under half of these are naturalized citizens and about 11.5 million are here illegally.

Given the disparity between rich and poor countries in the world and the enduring allure of living in a democracy with the rule of law and individual rights, America will continue to be a magnet for people from all over the world.  Nothing is ever going to change that.  And given the collapsing birth rate in the U.S., there is going to be a constant need to import workers to prop up an inverted population pyramid.

However, the process needs to be controlled and rational. The situation at our southern border today is anything but controlled and rational.  The Biden Administration’s policy of basically pretending there is no problem is incomprehensible, both as matter of policy and politically.

However, Congress bears an equal share of the blame for failing to comprehensively reform our antiquated immigration laws, especially the asylum provisions which the cartels are currently exploiting. Until Congress fixes our broken immigration system, any president is going to struggle to control the flow of immigrants into our country and Americans will continue to suffer the consequences of chaotic immigration.