The US Census Bureau makes projections of the US population based on various immigration scenarios. Currently it publishes four scenarios representing a high, low, medium (“main”), and a zero-immigration rate.

In its main case, which the Census Bureau considers the most likely scenario, the US population is projected to increase slowly from its current level of about 338 million to 369 million by 2080, with an average annual growth rate of 0.0163%. This scenario assumes that the US will allow approximately 1 million immigrants to enter the country each year.

In the high case, which assumes approximately 1.5 million new immigrants each year, the population continues to grow for the remainder of the century, reaching 435 million by 2100. That represents an annual growth rate of approximately 0.033%.  However, it is important to note that the growth rate gradually declines over that period and approaches zero by the end of the century.

In the low case, which assumes about 500,000 new immigrants each year, the population peaks in 2043 at just under 346 million, representing a 2.8% increase from the current population. By the end of the century, the population will fall to 319 million, a 5% drop.

But the scenario that really caught my attention was the zero-immigration projection.  In this scenario, the US population is projected to have already peaked and will decline by over 30% by 2100, reaching approximately 225 million. That was approximately the U.S. population in 1980. After 2040, the population is expected to decline by approximately 1 million residents annually. That is the equivalent of losing an Austin every year. By the end of the century, the loss is estimated to be over 2 million annually.

If you look at the components of the zero-immigration projection, you will see that net immigration is a negative number for all years. This is because, contrary to what many believe and what is trumpeted incessantly on social media, many immigrants leave the country every year.

Many leave voluntarily. A good example is when young people come here on educational visas and then return to their country after completing their education. Additionally, contrary to social media lore, the US has consistently removed a large number of people from the country each year. In the last two years, the US has been removing about 100,000 immigrants per month.

There is a heavy emphasis on immigration in these projections because it is the most impactful factor on population and the most difficult to predict. When making a population projection, three key variables must be taken into account: the birth rate, the death rate, and immigration. The birth and death rates are relatively stable and tend to change slowly over time. That makes the change in natural population (births minus deaths) reasonably predictable.

However, the country can regulate the number of people who enter the country. The rate of immigration, therefore, depends on the public’s attitude toward immigration and how their feelings will be reflected in public policy.  That makes the immigration variable much more challenging to predict.

I think the US will have significantly lower immigration rates in the near term. That is what the American people want, and it was the animating issue in the 2024 election. How long the public’s current dour view on immigration will last is anyone’s guess. Previous anti-immigrant cycles have generally lasted about 10-15 years.

However, I am not sure that will be a good predictor of this cycle. The country has never experienced an anti-immigrant cycle with this demographic setup or with information moving at the speed it does today, or with two dysfunctional parties representing the extremes in the country.

But the attitudes will change. Because this kind of population loss, or even a stagnate population, is going to create economic hardships for a wide swath of the country. When businesses’ growth stagnates, and people see their favorite restaurant close because the owner cannot find enough help to keep it open, or they cannot find anyone to do their yard work, attitudes toward immigration will soften.

For those of you who engage in the fantasy that native Americans will backfill these jobs, let me assure that it is exactly that – a fantasy.  In the zero-immigration scenario, there will only be about 9 million Americans between the ages of 14 and 24 would in 2100. The restaurant industry alone employs over 15 million people today.

The American ship of state has a massive ballast. It will eventually right itself, and we will not have a net zero immigration policy, at least, not for long. But in the meantime, the country is about to experience demographics unlike anything in its history.