Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released its population estimates for 2025. This is a bit of an odd year because the annual estimates are made as of July 1 each year. So, this estimate straddles the Biden and Trump administrations and their very different immigration policies.

Texas added 391,000 new residents, more than any other state. It added almost double Florida's increase, which ranked second. The percentage growth of only three states (the Carolinas and Idaho) was higher than Texas.

However, the increase in Texas’ population last year was down by over 43% from the previous year (599,000→391,000). Unpacking the numbers strongly suggests this downturn is likely to continue.

A little under half of Texas’ growth came from international immigration (167,000 or 43%). Natural change (i.e., births minus deaths) was unchanged from last year at 157,000. Domestic immigration into Texas from other states fell to 67,000, the lowest level since 2010, and was down 70% from its 2022 high. We saw a precipitous decline in domestic migration into Texas last year (191,000→85,000). Those in the demographic community have been wondering whether last year's decline was the beginning of a trend or a one-time anomaly. The new data would seem to suggest the former.

Of course, the most important question is what is really going on with international immigration. The Census Bureau estimates that international immigration nationwide fell by more than half last year (2.7 million → 1.3 million). With the dramatic change in immigration policy that the new administration has implemented, one would expect that most of the net positive immigration occurred in the last half of 2024. If the Trump administration continues its current immigration policies, it is not unreasonable to speculate that net international immigration next year could be zero or even negative.

We know that natural population growth is on the wane. Before the pandemic, we were having roughly a million more babies born every year in the U.S. than people dying. With the surge of fatalities during the pandemic, the natural increase dropped dramatically. But even now, it is still coming in at only about half the pre-pandemic level. The CBO has projected that 2030 will the last year the U.S. has a positive natural increase.

The decline in international immigration will further reduce natural growth because immigrant mothers contribute to a significant share of births. Over the last decade, about 40% of births in Harris County were to mothers not born in the U.S.

So, every factor affecting population growth in Texas is slowing, and that deacceleration likely to continue. The plain fact is that the halcyon days of never-ending growth in Texas are rapidly coming to an end.