Exit polling from the 2024 election showed that voters were most drawn to Trump for his promises to lower prices and control immigration. For his first two months in office, Americans mostly liked what they saw as border crossings dropped to a trickle. During that time, polling consistently showed a favorable rating in the double digits for his handling of immigration.
But by late spring, Americans’ mood began to change as Trump’s immigration policies evolved from controlling the border to making good on his promise of mass deportations. Trump clearly promised to deport all immigrants who were in the country illegally. Most polling at the time found that about half of Americans agreed with that stance. But as the reality of mass deportations began to roll out, Americans started having second thoughts. Gallup found that support for deporting all immigrants in the country illegally fell from 47% in late 2024 to 38% by late last year.
The reality of mass deportations and the ham-handed way in which ICE has conducted them has steadily taken a toll on Trump’s approval rating on the issue, dropping 13% from March 2025 to last month (+7%→-6%).1
The drop-off is most dramatic with independents. According to polling by The Economist & YouGov, Trump’s approval rating today on immigration among independents has fallen 40 points since March 2025 (+15%→-25%). Support for his immigration policies among Hispanics, a group that swung significantly to Trump in 2024, has dropped 24 points (-5%→-19%). Last March, every age group had a positive view of Trump’s immigration policies. As of last month, the only age group favoring his policies was the 45-64 age group. Ominously, for the first time, over-65s turned negative.
Americans have always had complicated views on immigration. Generally, they understandably recoil from people coming here illegally. However, few understand the complicated nuances of our immigration system, and when asked about specific situations, their views often soften. For example, the same Gallup poll found that 85% of Americans favor “allowing immigrants, who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children, the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time.”
Trump could have been, and indeed could still be, “Nixon going to China” on immigration. Because of his strong views on immigration enforcement, he could forge a compromise on a rational immigration system that strictly controls who is allowed into the country but deals humanely with the millions enticed here by the American dream during a time when our immigration system was hopelessly broken. So far, he has shown little inclination to do so. But perhaps the electoral disaster that appears to be waiting for him in the fall will motivate him in that direction. It would be an enduring legacy.
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Note 1 – There is an anomaly in the polling. Morning Consult has consistently found Trump’s immigration rating significantly more positive than those of the other pollsters over the last year. They were the only pollster in the last month to find a positive approval rating. Because Morning Consult polls frequently, their results significantly skew the averages. For example, in January, without Morning Consult’s polling, Trump’s average would have been -8.3% instead of -5.7%.
